Well to be exact, four agave spirit trends and one agave trend. Tess Rose shares what she’s picked up from her contacts and observations.
The world of agave spirits is not slowing down. By any metrics, interest in mezcal and its many variations continues to grow, especially internationally. As we look ahead to what’s likely to trend, a few themes jump out. Some build on agave trends we saw grow in 2024, and others seem to be just breaking out now. My predictions for growth in 2025 are based on chats with people all over the world and in every corner of the industry.
1. China has entered the chat
For some time, the US market has dominated agave spirits exports, particularly in the artisanal sector. In 2024, we saw a significant increase in interest in Europe, with small and mid-sized importers and distributors ramping up their selections of artisanal agave spirits. A few years ago, it was rare to find a mezcal brand that exported to Europe but not the United States, but today that’s much more common. The oversaturation in the US market contributes to this trend. New brands have trouble moving significant volume, or even getting a foot in the door.
Meanwhile in China, a group of boutique importers and distributors are gaining a following. At the end of 2024, China had its first ever agave spirit festival, the Long Agave Festival organized by Ray Heng, who brought together agave spirits importers, distributors, and thousands of thirsty industry professionals. With a culture of appreciation for high ABV and wildly dynamic spirits (looking at you Baijiu), and a huge middle class (around 500 million people) with serious buying power, China’s market for agave spirits is set for major growth. We should also consider potential tariffs that could shift international commerce. For example, the United States could place prohibitive tariffs on Mexican imports while healthy trade relations between China and Mexico grow. Our verdict? China could become one of the primary export markets for agave spirits sooner rather than later.
2. Homemade brands
Another way of saying producer-owned brands, “homemade brands” have been on the rise for a couple of years now. It seems that the infrastructure in Mexico has turned a corner in terms of accessibility for families who want to launch their own brands. A growing number of producers have family or family-like connections in foreign markets, and thus see realistic paths to realizing the dream of creating a homegrown brand.
Producers still encounter a ton of barriers, most notably when it comes to exporting and finding a place in the market, but more mezcalero families are clamoring to get their piece of the pie. This comes at a particularly difficult moment due to the oversaturation of the primary export market in the United States. As more producers start their own brands, there seems to be less room for them on US shelves and backbars.
Even so, I this as a positive movement that puts the power and agency back in the hands of the people and communities that have kept the tradition and wisdom of agave spirits alive for centuries. I suspect we will see more of these producer-owned brands with limited availability on a state-by-state basis, others that will stay in Mexico, and still others that will bypass both the national market and the US market to land on shelves in Europe, Asia, and Africa.
3. Not mezcal
The trend toward uncertified agave spirits has been growing steadily with no signs of stopping. As more brands enter the market, and the regulating entities shift, it’s increasingly common for brands to eschew formal certification and label their products as “destilado de agave.” Businesses and consumers have shown that the absence of the word “mezcal” on a label doesn’t necessarily impede a brand’s path to success. I suspect we will see more brands following in the footsteps of Real Minero and dropping a previous label status, and even more new brands that never pursue certification in the first place. (The reasons for opting out are varied, and may include minimizing bureaucracy and costly lab tests, and/or an implicit political statement.)
On a related note…We will continue to see more agave based-products that are not traditional. This includes agave-based gins, spirits made outside of Mexico, and non-alcoholic agave spirits.
4. Custom batches and brands
The rise of the agave influencer has increased the production of exclusive batches. Stores or bars buying up entire lots or having a producer make something just for them is not a new thing. But the way in which it’s becoming part of the business models and marketing plans of both brands and influencers does have a new significance. Strategic partnerships between people and establishments that are seen as agave demagogues is a new way of moving volume and creating brand recognition–it’s a win-win for both the influencing party and the brand. Sometimes it’s a win for the consumers too.
However, I see the unfortunate continuation of brands from B, C, and D list celebrities as another form of this trend. (Not that brands from A-listers are any better. ) In many cases, it is a partnership between an established producer and someone who has an audience, be they sports fans or cocktail nerds. The special editions (or in some cases, full brands) tweak a few aspects of the base product and package it as something exclusive. Ultimately, I think this takes away some of the respect and admiration due to the producers. But at the same time, many of these partnerships help producers generate income to fuel their own projects. It is fertile ground for discussion, which I’m sure we will see come up in agave-focused panels and conversations throughout 2025.
5. Agave as adaptogen
This is my most insider-info trend prediction, which may only begin to percolate to the mainstream in 2025. Every couple of years, agave trends as a health topic. We’ll get an article or two about how agave spirits can help you lose weight, are good for blood sugar regulation, etc. Think of the marketing behind agave nectar, which is a processed food product that masquerades as a health food thanks to being relatively low on the glycemic index compared to other sweeteners.
As western culture continues to obsess over so-called “adaptogens” in a quest to find magical ingredients that can address a litany of chronic health issues, agave will have its moment in the spotlight. In particular I expect to see “medicinal” formulations that use an agave base – anything from tinctures and tonics to “vitamin” dietary supplements. Of particular note here is agave inulin, a type of prebiotic water-soluble fiber that can also be used as a sweetener. Multiple products already promote agave inulin as a dietary supplement and a remedy for blood sugar instability. Like anything (regardless of the validity via scientific research or traditional folk medicine history) this is likely to be co-opted by big marketing to sell sell sell. I can see it now: a 23-year-old influencer in LA promoting a fire sale on agave inulin that will cure diabetes type two–available for a limited time on the tiktok shop! The concern I have is how it might impact an already strained ecosystem if there is yet another high-demand agave-based product on the market.
Leave a Comment